What the Latest Polls Really Tell Us About California’s Governor’s Race
Here is a tight, professional description for Transistor (shorter than Substack, optimized for podcast apps):
Today, Jon takes a closer look at the latest public opinion polling shaping the California governor’s race — including two newly released surveys from UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center (in partnership with Politico) and Emerson College.
Jon breaks down what the numbers show, what changed from Emerson’s previous poll, and why the growing number of undecided voters suggests the race is still wide open. He also discusses several important caveats about the polling — including questions about methodology, the use of AI in survey research, and the fact that neither poll appears to include ballot designations for candidates.
Finally, Jon looks at new national numbers from the latest NBC News survey showing both Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris underwater with the national electorate.
A quick look at what the polls say — and what they don’t.
Source Materials
Source Materials
Politico: Poll: Hilton’s rise could spare Dems from disaster in California gov’s race - LINK
Emerson College Polling: California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Takes Lead in Governor Primary, 25% undecided; Election for LA Mayor Wide Open - LINK
And from Decision Desk: LINK
